What Buyers and Sellers Can Expect From NYC’s Fall Housing Market

New York, NY

New York City heads into fall after a stronger July for contract activity. More homes entered contract across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens than a year earlier, while citywide asking prices moved lower and borrowing costs stayed high. With buyers returning from summer trips and some renters reconsidering ownership, the fall market could see more deals even if sellers do not gain more leverage across the board.

Buyers Are Moving Ahead at Current Rates

According to StreetEasy’s July market report, 2,147 homes entered contract across New York City, up 16.7% from a year earlier. Contract activity increased 11.1% in Manhattan, 16.8% in Brooklyn, and 28.8% in Queens.

Jennifer Van de Kieft, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson at Keller Williams NYC, says more buyers reached out to her this summer than in recent years and expects activity to pick up as people return from vacation. Many have adjusted to current borrowing costs, she says, even if they remain careful about what they purchase. She expects the fall to be “an active, resilient, and healthy market.”

Mortgage rates have done little to encourage those buyers. The national average 30-year fixed rate was 6.71% on September 3, according to Freddie Mac.

At the same time, renting has become more expensive. StreetEasy reported a citywide median asking rent of $4,200 in July, up 2.8% from a year earlier. Asking rents rose 5.2% in Manhattan, 5% in Brooklyn, and 0.7% in Queens. Caroline Bass, Licensed Associate Broker at Corcoran, expects activity around the $1 million level to strengthen this fall and sees rental costs making ownership more attractive for some first-time purchasers if mortgage rates remain relatively stable.

Sellers Are Already Adjusting on Price

The increase in contracts has come alongside lower asking prices. StreetEasy reported that the citywide median asking price fell 5% from a year earlier to $998,000 in July, while inventory slipped 1.6%. Homes that sold received a median 98.3% of their most recent asking price.

Louis Adler, co-founder of REAL New York, expects buyers to have more room to negotiate as days on market stretch, though limited supply can still work in a seller’s favor. “Turnkey, well-located product keeps moving fast and gives sellers leverage,” Adler said. Properties requiring substantial work, in his view, are more likely to need price flexibility.

Van de Kieft expects listings that start at realistic prices to draw stronger interest this fall. Homes that come to market too high may spend longer looking for a buyer before the seller adjusts.

Location will play a role as well. “I expect the Upper East Side and Upper West Side to remain among Manhattan’s most resilient markets this fall, supported by consistent demand, established housing stock, and desirable neighborhoods,” said Bass. “Midtown East and Midtown West are likely to remain more favorable to buyers, with higher inventory levels creating increased negotiating power and opportunities for well-priced purchases.”

Luxury Enters Fall With Its Own Pressures

At $5 million and above, Manhattan’s July market remained active. Corcoran recorded 53 contracts, 2% more than a year earlier and above the historical July average. Average asking price per square foot fell 3% compared to last year, while available inventory reached a 12-year July low.

Jonathan Normolle, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson at Keller Williams NYC, expects luxury demand to remain strong, particularly among buyers who are less sensitive to borrowing costs. He also sees high-end resale properties holding an advantage over parts of the new-development market this fall.

David Snyder, Associate Broker at Keller Williams NYC, expects buyers above $5 million to have more room to negotiate from September through November. A seller’s motivation may become especially important in those deals.

Some owners are facing a new consideration as well. New York City’s non-primary residence property surcharge may apply to certain high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. Bass expects the charge to prompt some owners to sell sooner than planned, and Normolle expects the effect on luxury pricing overall to be limited, though he sees the $4 million to $8 million second-home segment as more exposed.

July’s contract numbers suggest buyers have not been waiting for perfect conditions. Mortgage rates are still high, rents have continued to climb, and sellers have already started adjusting asking prices. If fall activity picks up after Labor Day, those existing pressures—not a sudden change in the market—may be enough to get more people moving.